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Midwest economy: September state-by-state glance

The Institute for Supply Management, formerly the Purchasing Management Association, began formally surveying its membership in 1931 to gauge business conditions.

The Creighton Economic Forecasting Group uses the same methodology as the national survey to consult supply managers and business leaders. Creighton University economics professor Ernie Goss oversees the report.

The overall index ranges between 0 and 100. Growth neutral is 50, and a figure greater than 50 indicates growth in that factor over the next three to six months.

Here are the state-by-state results for September:

Arkansas: The overall index for Arkansas inched up to 48.3 in September from 48.2 in August. Index components were new orders at 44.2, production or sales at 49.6, delivery lead time at 56.5, inventories at 47.1 and employment at 44.3. Construction activity remained strong in the state, according to the report. “However, new orders and hiring among manufacturers for the last two months signal slowing economic conditions in the state,” Goss said.

Iowa: Iowa’s overall index remained below the growth neutral threshold for second straight month. It hit 49.6 last month. August’s figure was 49.7. Index components were new orders at 45.9, production or sales at 49.1, delivery lead time at 57.0, employment at 48.3 and inventories at 47.9. Manufacturers experienced solid growth over the past several months, the report said, but new orders and hiring among manufacturers for the last two months signal slowing economic conditions.

Kansas: The state’s overall index rose above growth neutral to reach 51.1 in September. Kansas’ August figure was 49.9. Index components were new orders at 51.4, production or sales at 48.7, delivery lead time at 57.5, employment at 49.2 and inventories at 48.8. “Durable- and nondurable-goods producers have been expanding at a slow, but positive pace, over the past several months,” Goss said. “However, survey results over the past two months point to even slower growth in the months ahead.”

Minnesota: Minnesota’s overall index dipped to 48.4 in September from 48.6 in August. Index components were new orders at 49.7, production or sales at 49.7, delivery lead time at 56.3, inventories at 43.1 and employment at 44.6. “Construction activity in the state remains very strong even as durable- and nondurable-goods manufacturers reported pullbacks in economic activity,” Goss said.

Missouri: The state’s overall index dropped below growth neutral last month. It hit 49.2, compared with August’s 50.1. Missouri’s index components were new orders at 48.9, production or sales at 48.8, delivery lead time at 55.2, inventories at 42.3 and employment at 48.8. Construction activity in the state continues to improve, and manufacturers are experiencing essentially flat growth with new orders and other indicators pointing to slow to no growth in the months ahead, Goss said.

Nebraska: Nebraska’s overall index moved slightly into growth territory. The state’s overall index climbed to 50.6 from August’s 49.3. Index components were new orders at 49.3, production or sales at 49.0, delivery lead time at 57.1, inventories at 48.2 and employment at 49.4. Construction activity in the state continues to improve, and manufacturers are experiencing almost flat growth with new orders and other indicators pointing to slow to no growth in the months ahead, he said.

North Dakota: The state’s overall index slipped to 50.1 from 51.2 in August. Index components were new orders at 49.2, production or sales at 49.4, delivery lead time at 56.6, employment at 47.7 and inventories at 47.4. “Growth in the state’s large energy sector and related industries has slowed for much of 2019,” Goss said. “Slow growth in the state’s durable-goods manufacturing sector offset pullbacks among nondurable-goods producers in the state.” Overall growth in the North Dakota economy will remain positive, he said, but slower in the final quarter of 2019.

Oklahoma: Oklahoma’s overall index rose to 50.1 last month from August’s 49.2. Index components were new orders at 49.2, production or sales at 49.4, delivery lead time at 56.7, inventories at 47.5 and employment at 47.8. Growth in the state’s large energy sector and related industries has slowed for much of 2019. “Business pullbacks among the state’s durable-goods and nondurable-goods manufacturing sectors offset improving growth among the state’s nonmanufacturing sector,” Goss said. Overall growth in the state economy will remain positive, he said but slower in the final quarter of 2019.

South Dakota: The state’s overall index sank further below growth neutral to hit 47.8 in September, compared with 48.3 in August. Index components were new orders at 42.6, production or sales at 49.5, delivery lead time at 56.5, inventories at 47.2 and employment at 43.2. South Dakota’s construction activity continues to improve. Manufacturers, on the other hand, are experiencing “almost flat growth with new orders and other indicators pointing to slow to no growth in the months ahead,” Goss said.

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